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9月8日

Forecasting: Tree of Knowledge or Sour Apples?

The most obvious question one can ask about all things forecasting is: Where were you at the eco crunch?
I had just finished reading The Black Swan by http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ when the economy slid into the ocean of debt and was quite gobsmacked at the timing of it all.
Like anything, Analytics and Forecasting are useless unless seen and understood in the greater context and by the RIGHT people.
There were many voices trying to scream a warning about the financial state that turned nasty but they were drowned out by man's greed and the fact that people simply don't like bad news - or more to the point, will not make a judgement on the side of caution.
We're positive gambler's by nature, always looking for the big score or to increase what we have so it's those that wave the red flag that get nailed to the ridiculous cross either in front of the building as a warning, or way out of sight to stop a possible infection.
The latest tactic is to just ignore these prophets of doom and wait for the daily deluge of facts and white noise to wash it all away.

Be that as it may, with the right approach and champion, one can slowly educate a dept, corporation, industry or even a planet, as long as the basics are adhered to:
Forecasting Methodology Tree
9 Common Forecasting Errors

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